Download full text
(external source)
Citation Suggestion
Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:
https://doi.org/10.25592/ifsh-research-report-010
Exports for your reference manager
Negative Multiplicity: Forecasting the Future Impact of Emerging Technologies on International Stability and Human Security
[research report]
Corporate Editor
Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg (IFSH)
Abstract We asked 30 experts to forecast the developmental trajectories of twelve emerging technologies in the United States, Russia, and China until 2040 and to score their possible future impact on arms race stability, crisis stability, and humanitarian principles. The results reveal that, on average, thei... view more
We asked 30 experts to forecast the developmental trajectories of twelve emerging technologies in the United States, Russia, and China until 2040 and to score their possible future impact on arms race stability, crisis stability, and humanitarian principles. The results reveal that, on average, their impact is expected to be negative, with some technologies negatively affecting all three dependent variables. We used a machine learning algorithm to cluster the technologies according to their anticipated impact. This process identified
technology clusters comprised of diverse high-impact technologies that share key impact characteristics but do not necessarily share technical characteristics. We refer to these combined effects as ‘negative multiplicity’, reflecting the predominantly negative, concurrent, and in some cases similar, first- and second-order effects that emerging technologies are expected to have on international stability and human security. The expected alignment of the
technology development trajectories of the United States, Russia, and China by 2040, in combination with the negative environment created by geopolitical competition, points to a nascent technological arms race that threatens to seriously impede international arms control efforts to regulate emerging technologies.... view less
Keywords
technical development; political stability; human security; prognosis; arms control; new technology; impact; effects of technology
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Technology Assessment
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
City
Hamburg
Page/Pages
107 p.
Series
IFSH Research Report, 010
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0