Mapping Russia's Influence in the Kyrgyz Republic

Abstract

This policy brief maps how Russia intentionally and unintentionally influences Kyrgyz politics, economy, society and culture, while exploring what challenges this influence might pose for the Kyrgyz government if it is left unchecked and unaddressed, and provides recommendations on how Kyrgyz policy makers could address these challenges. In particular, three key challenges are identified. First, the Kyrgyz Republic demonstrates a strong path dependence in its decision and policy making. While 2021 marks the 30th anniversary of the country’s independence, Kyrgyz policy makers continue the course of their Soviet predecessors, who largely depended on Moscow to design and implement legislation and policies. In the independent Kyrgyz Republic, this practice borders on state-level plagiarism. Second, there is a challenge of overwhelming dependence on Russia. Kyrgyz financial, economic, military and security dependence on Russia is conditioned by the Kyrgyz Republic's economic and geopolitical position. However, this dependence is excessive and serves neither Kyrgyz nor Russian long-term interests. Finally, the Kyrgyz leadership needs to understand, take stock and make the most of Russia's soft power instruments in the country. Using soft power in third countries has become a conventional foreign policy tool to pursue the national interests and global aspirations of soft-power superpowers. Russia's use of soft power is more defined and assertive than it has been, which calls for a shift of long-term strategic thinking on the Kyrgyz side.