China-Iran Strategic Cooperation: Context and Central Asian Vectors

Abstract

In March, China and Iran signed a 25-year Strategic Cooperation Agreement in Tehran. The agreement reportedly provides for up to $400 billion of direct investment, reflecting earlier commitments made during Xi's landmark visit in 2016. This year’s ceremony, attended by Foreign Minster Wang, coincided with the half centenary of the establishment of bilateral relations, and some commentators have hailed the agreement as marking a major strategic re-alignment. The reality is more complex, but the trajectory of Sino-Iranian relations is a pivotal one, particularly for Central Asia, the region separating two states that routinely eulogize each other in 'civilizational' terms. Tangible markers for a Sino-Iranian 'axis' in the region are noticeably absent however and the shared 'New Silk Road' vision has been stifled by sanctions, poor connectivity and regional wariness towards Tehran's revolutionary agenda. This policy brief reviews the China-Iran strategic relationship and identifies four key vectors for its future development in the region.