Raisi's Foreign Policy: Pragmatic Revolutionism and the Iranian Pivot to Asia

Abstract

Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi, the new Iranian conservative president, has been in office for over four months now. Understanding his presidency matters for myriad reasons, including its historical significance, his foreign policy oriented towards Asia, and what the Iranian pivot to Asia under him entails geopolitically and geoeconomically. Iranian conservative elites view the present moment as the end of the first phase of the Iranian Islamic revolution. Raisi's presidency, to them, is the dawn of a historical "second phase", a post-Ali Khamenei era for a young revolutionary generation. Doctrinally, Raisi's foreign policy can be described as "pragmatic revolutionism." Policy-wise, Raisi - following Khamenei's edict - is embracing the "Iranian pivot to Asia," both geopolitically and geoeconomically. Geopolitically, the revolutionary aspect of this pivot means supporting the resistance axis against the United States and Israel and expelling US forces from the region. Its pragmatism includes promoting regional solutions to regional problems, de-escalation with traditional rivals (e.g. the Emiratis, Saudis, Taliban), and further strategic proximity to Asian actors such as China. Geoeconomically, the revolutionary dimension of this pivot is the resistance economy, a reactive policy to bypass US sanctions. The pragmatic multilateralist dimension is the Iranian connectivity strategy, a proactive process to make Iran a crossroads between various (Eur)Asian geoeconomic initiatives, such as China's Belt and Road Initiative and International North-South Transport Corridor. If the West only concerns itself with the revolutionary component of Iranian foreign policy the costs will be too high. European and US policymakers should therefore seize upon the multilateralist and pragmatic tendencies of Raisi's emerging foreign policy to revive the nuclear deal, with a focus on economic incentives. The European Union should strive for strategic autonomy to deal with Iran independently, if need be.