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Stuck in the middle: Ideology, valence and the electoral failures of centrist parties
[journal article]
Abstract In recent years centrist-liberal parties, such as the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) in 2013 and the British Liberal Democrats in 2015 and 2017, suffered enormous electoral defeats. These defeats highlight a prominent puzzle in the study of party competition and voting behavior; the empty center... view more
In recent years centrist-liberal parties, such as the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) in 2013 and the British Liberal Democrats in 2015 and 2017, suffered enormous electoral defeats. These defeats highlight a prominent puzzle in the study of party competition and voting behavior; the empty center phenomenon. That is, empirical evidence suggests that most parties do not converge to the median voter's position, despite the centripetal force of the voters’ preference distribution. Using survey data from Canada, Finland, Germany and the United Kingdom, this article shows that deterioration of centrist parties’ valence image is followed by a collapse of their vote shares. Using mathematical simulations, this article shows that centrist parties have limited strategic opportunities to regain their support. Differently from other parties, centrist parties cannot alter their policy platforms to compensate for their deteriorated valence image. These results have important implications for political representation and voters–elite linkages.... view less
Keywords
center party; political center; political direction; representation; ideology; political ideology; election; Free Democratic Party; liberal party; party; voting behavior; political strategy; survey; survey research; Canada; Finland; Great Britain; Federal Republic of Germany
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
centrist parties; left-right; valence; mass-elite linkages; simulations
Document language
English
Publication Year
2019
Page/Pages
p. 1-18
Journal
British Journal of Political Science (2019)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000231
ISSN
1469-2112
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed