"Leaving them behind" - global trends in forced migration

Abstract

Regions with civil wars will continue to be characterised by endemic violent conflicts and forced displacement in the coming decade. Accordingly, the number of displaced people from war-like contexts will increase. Due to the absence of durable solutions the number of forcibly displaced people who informally remain in a receiving country without a chance of ever obtaining citizenship of that country will grow. Countries of the Global South are likely to follow the practices of the Global North and refuse reception of refugees or even enforce collective deportation. This makes it all the more difficult to implement international agreements to manage forced displacement. Forced migrants are increasingly seeking protection in urban agglomerations. This increases the risk that social services in the cities will collapse and societal tensions will mount. Against the backdrop of the increasing duration and cyclical recurrence of violent conflict, the operational separation between refugees and IDPs can hardly be maintained. In addition, the boundaries between humanitarian aid and development cooperation will blur ever more. Aid organisations will be caught in a situation in which their engagement in support of displaced people might at the same time contribute to accommodating donors' interests of channelling and impeding refugee movements.