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The microfoundations of diversionary conflict
[journal article]
Abstract Diversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad. At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens. Relying on social identity theory (SIT), I deduce two hypotheses ... view more
Diversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad. At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens. Relying on social identity theory (SIT), I deduce two hypotheses to help explain why conflict can increase popular support for leaders. First, conflict with an outgroup can make people identify more strongly with their ingroup. Second, stronger ingroup identification can lead to increased support for leaders inside the group. The second part of the article applies these two hypotheses to Russia’s seizure of Crimea in early 2014. Attitude surveys show that the Crimea conflict increased national pride among Russians while support for President Vladimir Putin rose dramatically, and they suggest that the two processes were causally linked. These findings support the article’s two hypotheses.... view less
Keywords
conflict research; nationalism; ethnic conflict; pressure-group politics; political leadership; Russia; Putin, V.; group cohesion; public opinion
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Diversionary Conflict; Social Identity Theory; Conflict-Cohesion hypothesis; Conflict-Cohesion hypothesis; Crimea; annexation
Document language
English
Publication Year
2018
Page/Pages
p. 318-343
Journal
Security Studies, 27 (2018) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2017.1386941
ISSN
1556-1852
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed