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Three scenarios for the development of the Sisi regime in Egypt: development dictatorship, Mubarak 2.0, or rapid collapse?
Drei Szenarien zur Entwicklung des Sisi-Regimes in Ägypten: Entwicklungsdiktatur, Mubarak 2.0 oder schneller Zusammenbruch?
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract A referendum on a constitutional amendment is to be held in Egypt at the beginning of May, which would enable President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi to continue governing after the end of his current term. In the face of massive repression, approval seems certain. This would largely complete the power consol... view more
A referendum on a constitutional amendment is to be held in Egypt at the beginning of May, which would enable President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi to continue governing after the end of his current term. In the face of massive repression, approval seems certain. This would largely complete the power consolidation of the Sisi-regime, which emerged from the military coup of July 2013. But how will this regime develop in the future? Possible scenarios are a successful development dictatorship, decades of political and economic stagnation, as under Hosni Mubarak, or imminent failure. While a development dictatorship is unrealistic due to a lack of willingness to reform, the other two scenarios entail major risks for Germany and its European partners. In the future, they should therefore link new budgetary assistance to improvements in human and civil rights, focus on humanitarian crisis prevention in line with the "do no harm" approach, and expand contacts with representatives of the Egyptian opposition outside of Egypt. (Autorenreferat)... view less
Keywords
Middle East; success-failure; revolution; socioeconomic development; political development; dictatorship; resistance; authoritarian system; domination; development policy; protest movement; Egypt; stagnation; North Africa; scenario
Classification
Political System, Constitution, Government
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
Sīsī, 'Abd-al-Fattāḥ as-; Umsturzbestrebungen/Umsturz
Document language
English
Publication Year
2019
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
4 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 18/2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2019C18
ISSN
1861-1761
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications