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Do expectations on oil discoveries affect civil unrest? Micro-level evidence from Mali
[journal article]
Abstract In recent years, many oil finds were made along the shores of Africa, often triggering high hopes. But do expectations of the consequences of oil discoveries affect subsequent conflict? A number of arguments back this idea. Relative deprivation theory suggests that oil discoveries raise hopes of win... view more
In recent years, many oil finds were made along the shores of Africa, often triggering high hopes. But do expectations of the consequences of oil discoveries affect subsequent conflict? A number of arguments back this idea. Relative deprivation theory suggests that oil discoveries raise hopes of windfalls, which if not fulfilled, result in frustration and thus increase conflict risk. In contrast, cognitive psychology assumes that the effect of expectations largely works through a confirmation bias and thus depends on whether individuals attach positive or negative expectations to oil discoveries. Given the lack of appropriate data, these relationships have never been tested empirically. Using unique georeferenced data from a representative survey in Mali in 2006, this paper addresses this gap. Our results suggest that expectations indeed significantly contribute to subsequent conflict. The negative or positive character of expectations is critical, working as "self-fulfilling prophecy" rather than frustrated "great expectations": when people hold negative views on the future effects of oil, the risk of civil unrest increases.... view less
Keywords
natural resources; raw materials; raw material deposits; domestic security; conflict; Mali; crude oil; natural gas; commodity policy; conflict potential; expectation; political conflict; protest; violence; psychosocial factors; developing country; West Africa
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Erdölgewinnung; Erdgasgewinnung; Rohstoffabbau; Rohstoffgewinnung; Ressourcenkonflikt; Innenpolitischer Konflikt; politische Unruhen; Bestimmungsfaktoren der Politik
Document language
English
Publication Year
2018
Page/Pages
19 p.
Journal
Cogent Social Sciences, 4 (2018) 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2018.1470132
ISSN
2331-1886
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed