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Una alternativa para estimar la exactitud de las encuestas
An alternative to estimate the polls accuracy
[journal article]
Abstract The intent of this paper is to present an alternative estimator to measure the accuracy
of the polls and some derived estimators, which seeks to cushion problems detected in
the available options. This is achieved by adjusting the value of the absolute differences
according to the statistical err... view more
The intent of this paper is to present an alternative estimator to measure the accuracy
of the polls and some derived estimators, which seeks to cushion problems detected in
the available options. This is achieved by adjusting the value of the absolute differences
according to the statistical error of the estimates and, to allow a symmetrical behavior
of the indicator, to convert it into its logarithm. The expectation is that these estimators
provide a useful tool for future analysis on the accuracy of pre-election polls.... view less
Keywords
prognosis; election result; election research; estimation
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
measurement; precision; accuracy; polls; elections
Document language
Spanish
Publication Year
2018
Page/Pages
p. 123-156
Journal
Política y Cultura (2018) 49
ISSN
0188-7742
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed