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Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles
[collection article]
This document is a part of the following document:
Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook
Abstract Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–
11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can... view more
Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–
11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic
of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing.
Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.... view less
Classification
National Economy
Free Keywords
medium-term cycles;Juglar cycles; long cycles of Kondratieff; long waves; downswing phase
Collection Title
Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook
Editor
Grinin, Leonid; Devezas, Tessaleno C.; Korotayev, Andrey
Document language
English
Publication Year
2014
Publisher
Uchitel Publishing House
City
Volgograd
Page/Pages
p. 25-95
ISBN
978-5-7057-4282-0
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed