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A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems
[collection article]
Abstract The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective proces... view more
The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes.
The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.... view less
Classification
General Sociology, Basic Research, General Concepts and History of Sociology, Sociological Theories
Population Studies, Sociology of Population
Free Keywords
modernization; instability; Malthusian trap; mathematical modeling; youth bulge; urbanization; Africa; demographic dynamics; demographic transition; political dynamics; political demography
Collection Title
History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles; Yearbook
Editor
Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey
Document language
English
Publication Year
2014
Publisher
Uchitel Publishing House
City
Volgograd
Page/Pages
p. 201-267
ISBN
978-5-7057-4223-3
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed