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A Polarizing Dynamic by Center Cabinets? The Mechanism of Limited Contestation
Eine polarisierende Wirkung von Zentrumskabinetten? Der Mechanismus der eingeschränkten Konkurrenz
[journal article]
Abstract What effect does the presence of a coalition of the ideological center have on polarization in party systems? Studies of party positioning demonstrate the impact of a party’s affiliation to the cabinet for its electoral campaigning. In addition, comparative studies of party systems analyzed the effe... view more
What effect does the presence of a coalition of the ideological center have on polarization in party systems? Studies of party positioning demonstrate the impact of a party’s affiliation to the cabinet for its electoral campaigning. In addition, comparative studies of party systems analyzed the effects of the competitive situation between the coalition and the opposition on party competition dynamics. Nevertheless, the linkage between findings of both branches of literature is still missing. On the one hand, studies of party competition models generally focus on explaining party behavior and do not aggregate these insights. On the other hand, party system studies usually lack an analytical micro-foundation. Thus, we do not know the mechanism that drives a polity to the extreme. To find this missing link, we derive two potential explanations based on the spatial theory of party competition and Satori’s study of party systems: incumbent punishment and limited contestation. We elaborate these mechanisms with the help of an agent-based model. Then, we trace the effect of cabinet type back to the limited contestation between coalition parties. If the incumbent parties avoid contestation with each other, a center cabinet induces polarizing dynamics since the opposition then has no incentive for responsible office-seeking. Specific circumstances such as a polarized electorate and voters’ negative evaluation of the cabinet parties support this mechanism. Methodologically, our simulation study reveals three advantages of the agent-based modeling approach: (1) the uncovering of thus far implicit assumptions; (2) the possibility of analyzing causal dependencies within a complex and dynamic model; and (3) the precision of our theoretical expectations based on the micro-foundation.... view less
Keywords
voting behavior; opinion formation; majority rule; party system; political actor; diversity of opinion; simulation; behavior pattern; opposition; model construction; government; polarization; coalition
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
Party competition; party system polarization; agent-based modeling; polarized pluralism
Document language
English
Publication Year
2018
Page/Pages
p. 168-209
Journal
Historical Social Research, 43 (2018) 1
Issue topic
Agent-Based Modeling in Social Science, History, and Philosophy
DOI
https://doi.org/10.12759/hsr.43.2018.1.168-209
ISSN
0172-6404
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed