What Really Happened: Patterns of Party Competition in the January and September 2015 Parliamentary Elections

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the axes of political competition using the electoral results of the parliamentary elections of 2015 (January and September). The analysis is based on the constituencies’ data. For the analysis we use the method of correspondence analysis for each election, using as cases the constituencies and as variables the political parties. Through this approach the geographical pattern of vote and the axes of political competition are realized. Furthermore, using the data from the election surveys we get the attitudes for a number of social and demographic variables connected with the reported vote (or the vote intention) for each party. From a comparative perspective, the similarities and dissimilarities were given. For the analysis we use a two-step procedure, computing firstly, via multivariate correspondence analysis, principal axes and loadings, and, secondly, through cluster analysis, attitudes are grouped in clusters.