Escenarios electorales para México 2006: el juego de Simon

Abstract

From the approach of the rational election, this work analyzes the paper that plays the polls in the electoral processes: from the theoretical plane, it finds that the repeated polling cycles will tend to take to the voters to a "Duvergerian equilibria", guiding them to coordinate itself from its initial beliefs; with empirical evidence, it shows as this effect occurs indeed during the process of Mexican presidential election 2000 and suggests possible scenes for the dispute of the federal Executive in 2006. (author's abstract)