Anti-science populism versus Brazil's Covid-19 vaccination Program: a tale of two pandemic stories

Abstract

Can civil servants protect the administrative state from illiberal populism? We argue that bureaucratic success in fending off illiberal populism necessitates both a supportive institutional environment and overcoming populist rhetoric meant to undermine public confidence in policy expertise. The Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil is a case study of populist antipathy toward a professional public health service. Brazil's public health officials were able to defy Jair Bolsonaro's obstruction of a Covid-19 mass vaccination program thanks to institutions characterised by insulation from executive reprisal, decentralised health care provision, and an independent judiciary. However, civil servant resistance was less effective in nullifying Bolsonaro's anti-vaccine rhetoric: Even as most Brazilians received Covid-19 vaccines, vaccination rates remained associated with electoral support for Bolsonaro and overall vaccine hesitancy increased. The Brazilian case suggests the power of populist rhetoric to undermine pluralist public administration by attacking its epistemic foundation, even in a context favorable to bureaucratic resistance.