Georgian-Russian Relations: A Shift from Influence to Ideological Convergence

Abstract

Since the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, formal diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia have been suspended, yet economic, cultural, and humanitarian ties persist and have even strengthened since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This article examines the key areas of converging interests between Russian and Georgian political elites, the potential for restored diplomatic relations, and the implications for Georgia and the South Caucasus. The Kremlin exerts leverage over Georgian politics through security, economic, ideological, and religious factors. Georgia's economic dependence on Russia has grown, with increasing exports to Russia and a surge in Russian business registrations in Georgia. The Georgian Dream (GD) party's ideological alignment with Russia, including the adoption of legislation mirroring Russian laws, further enables Russian influence. While normalization of relations is signaled by Moscow, contingent on Georgia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent entities, the possibility of deeper alignment remains uncertain. The West's strategy is crucial to prevent Georgia from drifting further into Russia's sphere of influence and to protect the region's rule-based systems.