Оценка глобальных и глокальных торговых потоков в торговле субъектов Северо-Западного федерального округа

Abstract

The relevance of the article is connected with the fact that the phenomenon of globalization and the related process of a glocalisation needs a quantitative assessment. The purpose is to establish the factors having universal meaning for the export of all subjects of the Northwestern Federal District and factors having special meaning for some of them. Secondly, our purpose was to define a weight of these special (glocal) variables in comparison to global. The gravitation equation characterizing the main regularities of export of the Northwestern Federal District subjects is received. The quality of the model for forecasting is sufficient. The simplified gravitation equation in a multiplicative form is offered. Model lets to establish export of the subject of the Northwestern Federal District connection with variables of glocality (existence of the common sea and belonging of the country of import to the European continent). Existence of the common overland borders doesn't play an essential role. The share of the glocal factors defining the streams of foreign trade makes 11%. The signs which distinguish trade of border subjects are: the volume of trade is higher than an average; in each bilateral direction goods of three or more Harmonized System chapters are shipped. Export dependence on global characteristics such as the level of regional economic integration of the country and the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index for St. Petersburg is more significant than for the Northwestern Federal District in general. The practical value of work consists in the fact that it confirms importance of the European countries as trade partners for subjects of the Northwestern Federal District.