Моделирование рынка внутренних российских пассажирских авиаперевозок

Abstract

In the article the market of passenger air transportation is modelled, as theoretical model the system of the equations demand-supply is used. Results of assessment of model on data on domestic market for 2013 show that demand is a little more sensitive to the change in price, than the supply. In addition, according to the received estimates, demand is expected above with a growth of number and the income of the population and during the periods of the increased tourist activity whereas growth of airport collecting significantly reduces the offer of airlines. In the work, the case analysis of separate effects in the market of passenger air transportation is carried out also. Results demonstrate that in the absence of other shocks leaving of Transaero from the market had to lead to increase in prices on the corresponding routes for 4,6%. In addition, calculation of potential dynamics of a passenger traffic depending on realization of one of three scenarios of the taxation in the oil sector has been carried out.