Ten Things to Watch in the Middle East and North Africa in 2025

Abstract

A tentative ceasefire apart, destitution in Gaza still looms large and the futures of Lebanon and Syria remain unclear. The Middle East drug trade has grown, conflicts from the Sahel and Sudan are spilling over, and societal protests seek new outlets while the United Nations Security Council remains paralysed. We present a list of ten things to watch in the region as we move into 2025. Domestic: Elections will reveal how authoritarian governments seek to manage discontent (e.g. Egypt, Iraq). Meanwhile, Arab street protests might evolve beyond Palestine solidarity movements. Islamist currents could benefit from continued outrage over the latest Gaza War. Regional: Lebanon hangs between renewed ethnic strife and restored sovereignty after Hezbollah's significant weakening while remaining highly dependent on developments in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Global inattention to Sudan emboldens violent actors and their allies. International NGOs and courts debate how to classify the war in Gaza legally, including accusations of genocide. There is a risk of conflict in the Sahel spilling over into North Africa. International: The growing Middle East drug trade is attracting international scrutiny. There could be a new influx of migrants and refugees to Europe from Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria, but also from secular Israelis disenchanted with their government's illiberal turn. The UNSC remains paralysed, pointing to the pivotal role the incoming Donald Trump administration will play in reshaping the regional order as well as the Israel-Iran conflict.