A Stand-Off between Unequal Partners: What Trump Means for Mexico

Abstract

When Donald Trump begins his second term in office on 20 January 2025, Mexico will face immense pressures to stop the flow of legal and illegal goods, people, and jobs. While by and large these threats will likely not materialise, as many proposals would be immensely costly for both sides, they will present formidable challenges for a Mexican government already dealing with its own problems. Regardless of Trump being elected, Mexico’s new president Claudia Sheinbaum has to confront a number of domestic challenges herself such as criminal violence, high levels of informality, low levels of taxation, and the continued production and trafficking of illicit drugs. With Trump set to return, Mexico's situation has become more complicated. Mexico is more exposed to Trump's proposed policies than any other country, not just because of its close economic relations with the United States but also because he has repeatedly singled it out for criticism regarding migration as well as drug manufacturing and smuggling. If Trump follows the script from his first term, there will be a gulf between rhetoric and reality. Nevertheless, managing her US counterpart and his policies will probably be the single-biggest challenge Mexico’s new president has to confront. The stakes are immense given the costs that would be incurred if some of Trump's proposals were indeed enacted. Trump must be able to show something for all his posturing and blustering. For the US to save face and Mexico to avoid the worst of it, there will have to be concessions from both sides - although Trump may present any outcome as "his" policy win.