The Ball That Failed to Curve: The 2023 "Populist Polarizing" Referendum in Poland

Abstract

In October 2023, Poland's illiberal right-wing government held a referendum modeled after the one held in Hungary one year earlier. Organized in conjunction with the parliamentary elections under the pretext of "saving costs," the 2023 Polish referendum constitutes the most recent example of how populists can use direct democracy to mobilize their electorate. However, unlike Hungary's experience a year earlier, this referendum highlights how "populist polarizing" referendums can become a double-edged sword. Building on previous work by Bartolini and Mair, and Enyedi, this article introduces a new type of referendum: the populist polarizing. Initiated by populist parties to amplify political divisions for partisan gain, this referendum-type frames choices in starkly oppositional terms, creating an "us vs. them" dynamic that intensifies polarization. We contrast this with the more known and studied "cleavage referendums." In particular, using both primary and secondary data, we demonstrate how Poland's populist government employed the referendum instrumentally. They posed thematically differentiated questions on issues such as relocating migrants within the EU, selling state assets, raising the retirement age, and removing a border barrier. By exploiting emotionally driven political divides, the government aimed to polarize the campaign and mobilize their voters in the lead-up to the general elections. Departing from the case-study literature, we present an innovative argument: opposition parties can counteract populist governments' strategies and successfully defend democracy by encouraging a selective boycott - voting in elections while refusing to participate in the referendum. The Polish experience illustrates how populist polarizing referendums, initially aimed to increase polarization and undermine democracy, can paradoxically be used to reverse democratic backsliding and safeguard liberal democracy. The Polish case shows that populist polarizing referendums are not infallible. While populist forces typically exploit polarization, referendums can also become a tool for the opposition. However, for the strategy to be effective, the opposition must take a constructive and strategic approach.