Is the migrant share really the problem? Size of migrant population and individual authoritarianism as major determinants of xenophobic attitudes

Abstract

Contact hypothesis and threat hypothesis are among the most influential theories of xenophobia. The former proposes that intergroup contact may reduce prejudice. The latter suggests that a large outgroup may increase xenophobic attitudes. Using data of a 2018 German representative sample (N = 2,016), we employed multilevel analyses. As predictors, we looked at outgroup size, gross domestic product, and unemployment rate on a county level. On the individual level, we included authoritarianism and a wide range of sociodemographic variables. Individual authoritarianism was identified as the strongest predictor of xenophobic attitudes. On the county level, a higher proportion of migrants was associated with lower values of xenophobia. This serves as an indicator for contact hypothesis. Our results suggest that contextualizing social psychological and micro-sociological theories and employing multilevel analyses are valuable tools to detangle the interplay of individual and contextual influences on xenophobic attitudes.