On migration aspirations in Southeastern Europe

Abstract

Southeast Europe is considered a traditional emigration region in the past and present. Our study looks to the future, and it focuses on migration intentions there. The representative database of the OeNB Euro Survey offers the opportunity to analyse both large- and small-scale as well as group-specific differentiations beyond the question of the potential for future mobility in Southeast Europe. It became evident that migration intentions are still high. It can be seen that pure intentions are often accompanied by concrete plans. The age and level of education as well as a lack of trust in the government policy are important determining factors. The preference for Germany as a destination country in the postYugoslav region indicates the persistence of networks from the Gastarbeiter era. From a spatial perspective, it is also clear that it is mainly the deprived regions of Southeastern Europe where migration intentions are strong. However, the affected sub-regions are not necessarily those in which the plans are very concrete, i.e. there is often a considerable gap between aspirations and capabilities. The long-term and sustainable effects of the migration that is expected to continue, with the corresponding consequences for demographics, education, labour force and social infrastructures, remain problematic.