Moving towards technological sovereignty: a new global trend and the Russian specifics

Abstract

This paper investigates the global trend of the early 2020s, characterized by securitization of industrial strategies and the course towards technological self-sufficiency/sovereignty (the TS course) in both developed and developing countries, accompanied by geopolitical fragmentation of the world economy. We first identify typical features of the process of securitization of industrial policy in the context of its historical models' evolution, then consider parameters of the TS course, including motives, objectives, tools, and risks, in Western nations (EU and USA) and in leading BRICS members (China, India, Brazil). It is shown that Western countries strive for product and technological independence from China while aiming for global leadership in the field of semiconductor (USA) or green (EU) technologies. Conversely, China aims for a central role in the global economy, prioritizing technological independence from the West. In India and Brazil, the TS course is shaped by structural economic challenges and the risks of growth slowdown. Against this background, we proceed to examine Russia's TS course, analyzing its rationale, design of TS projects, as well as limitations and risks posed by sanctions. Then we highlight distinctions between Russia's TS course and its foreign analogues, as well as reveal risks of Russia's increasing technological dependence on China. The conclusion suggests that achieving TS, driven by security imperatives, may present a more formidable challenge than anticipated by governments across different types of countries.