Syria Is Not Safe: A Look to Its Regions

Abstract

The readmission of Syria to the Arab League in May 2023 symbolised most Arab states’ normalisation of the dictatorship under President Bashar al-Assad 12 years after the start of the civil war. With Gaza dominating the Middle East since October 2023, developments in Syria’s different regions have been largely overlooked. This is problematic given the security situation on the ground has worsened. The Assad regime controls over 60 per cent of Syrian territory, aided by Iran and Russia. One of its primary sources of income is the illicit Captagon drug trade. Anti-Assad protests, directed against regime repression and corruption, have taken place in southeastern, Druze-dominated Suwaida since August 2023. Northwestern Idlib, dominated by the radical-Islamist Hay’at Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), is heavily attacked by regime and Russian air forces, leading to further population displacements. The region has also witnessed anti-HTS protests since early 2024. The Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria witnessed intense protests in the wake of surging violence against Syrian refugees in Turkey in July 2024. The demonstrations were exacerbated by the announcement of rapprochement efforts between Ankara and Damascus. Northeastern Syria, the area controlled by the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, has experienced an escalation of violence involving multiple actors. Local elections, initially planned for 30 May 2024, have since been postponed.