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Macroeconomy and macropartisanship: Economic conditions and party identification
[journal article]
Abstract "It's the economy stupid" - is the phrase that captures the ubiquity of economics in determining election outcomes. Nevertheless, while several studies support the premise of economic voting, a constant critique of valence economic models is that partisan bias contaminates voters' economic perceptio... view more
"It's the economy stupid" - is the phrase that captures the ubiquity of economics in determining election outcomes. Nevertheless, while several studies support the premise of economic voting, a constant critique of valence economic models is that partisan bias contaminates voters' economic perceptions, thus invaliding any independent effect of economic opinions on the vote. Here, we test whether partisanship may itself be endogenous to the macroeconomy. Aggregating data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), supplemented with European Social Survey (ESS) data to bolster the time analysis, we focus on macropartisanship and find a drop-off of party identifiers for governing parties in tandem with the economic downturn, specifically from rising unemployment. More generally, macropartisanship responds to economic conditions, suggesting that the endogeneity concern between party attachment and valence economic conditions is not unidirectional. That is, while economic perceptions may be influenced by party identification, party identification can be influenced by economic conditions.... view less
Keywords
macroeconomics; economic factors; economy; economic policy; election; electoral system; partiality; Europe; public opinion; party
Classification
Economic Policy
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
bailout; economic perceptions; economic voting theory; electoral policy; endogeneity of partisanship; macropolity; partisanship; political parties; valence economics; Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES)
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Page/Pages
p. 700-719
Journal
Politics & Policy, 50 (2022) 4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12473
ISSN
1747-1346
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed