India after the 2024 Elections: Trends and Implications

Abstract

Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to be in pole position to win India’s upcoming national elections. While their course will determine India’s democratic credentials, their outcome will define its role in addressing regional and global challenges. We present key factors that may shape Indian politics, governance, and its interaction with foreign powers in the coming years. Internal politics: The past ten years have seen the rise of a powerful centralised government bolstered by the popularity of Prime Minister Modi. This has raised questions about executive accountability, challenged the federal character of India, and curtailed civil liberties. The election results may portend the reversal or consolidation of these trends. International dynamics: Amid rising geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific, India will look to increase its engagement with regional minilaterals and a broad array of partners from the West and the Global South. Success will in part depend on whether it can maintain its attractiveness as a partner externally amid mounting majoritarianism domestically. Trade and economics: To sustain resilient growth in the face of geoeconomic shocks, India will focus primarily on bilateral free trade agreements, expanding its integration in global supply chains, and bolstering its manufacturing sector. Climate issues: Climate change has moved from the periphery to being an important, albeit not critical, electoral issue in 2024. How it influences India’s elections will significantly shape the global climate agenda.