Conditions for Democratic Transitions: Venezuela's 2024 Elections

Abstract

The resounding victory of María Corina Machado in the opposition primaries of October 2023 gave new hope for a transition from autocratic rule to democracy. But this also sounded the alarm among the Venezuelan government, whose survival depends on maintaining control over the executive. Nevertheless, current both internal and international conditions favour the Nicolás Maduro regime. Regional opposition has waned with the arrival into office of left-wing governments in Brazil and Colombia, as well as general crises facing formerly anti-Maduro regimes like those of Ecuador and Peru. EU and US opposition has diminished due to Russia's war against the Ukraine and the Israeli-Gaza war. When comparing current political conditions to those the last time there was an attempt to oust the Maduro government (2018-2019), it is fair to argue that the situation today is more favourable to the incumbent than it was previously. Venezuela's economic, security, and diplomatic circumstances are also significantly better than they were in the years 2014-2019. These include lower inflation, increased revenues, improved urban security, better control over national territory, and renewed diplomatic ties with the Latin American region and with Western powers. The conditions for free and fair elections in Venezuela are yet to materialise, and the Maduro's regime control over the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and the National Electoral Council only discredit the possibility of a transition to democracy being achieved via the ballot box.