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Conditions for Democratic Transitions: Venezuela's 2024 Elections
[Arbeitspapier]
Körperschaftlicher Herausgeber
German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Lateinamerika-Studien
Abstract The resounding victory of María Corina Machado in the opposition primaries of October 2023 gave new hope for a transition from autocratic rule to democracy. But this also sounded the alarm among the Venezuelan government, whose survival depends on maintaining control over the executive. Nevertheless... mehr
The resounding victory of María Corina Machado in the opposition primaries of October 2023 gave new hope for a transition from autocratic rule to democracy. But this also sounded the alarm among the Venezuelan government, whose survival depends on maintaining control over the executive. Nevertheless, current both internal and international conditions favour the Nicolás Maduro regime. Regional opposition has waned with the arrival into office of left-wing governments in Brazil and Colombia, as well as general crises facing formerly anti-Maduro regimes like those of Ecuador and Peru. EU and US opposition has diminished due to Russia's war against the Ukraine and the Israeli-Gaza war. When comparing current political conditions to those the last time there was an attempt to oust the Maduro government (2018-2019), it is fair to argue that the situation today is more favourable to the incumbent than it was previously. Venezuela's economic, security, and diplomatic circumstances are also significantly better than they were in the years 2014-2019. These include lower inflation, increased revenues, improved urban security, better control over national territory, and renewed diplomatic ties with the Latin American region and with Western powers. The conditions for free and fair elections in Venezuela are yet to materialise, and the Maduro's regime control over the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and the National Electoral Council only discredit the possibility of a transition to democracy being achieved via the ballot box.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Venezuela; Demokratisierung; Wahl; Kandidatenaufstellung; Opposition; Innenpolitik; politische Entwicklung; Diplomatie; Wahlergebnis; Betrug; Lateinamerika
Klassifikation
Staat, staatliche Organisationsformen
Freie Schlagwörter
Maduro Moros, Nicolás; Diplomatische Beziehungen; Wahlfälschungen/Wahlbetrug
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2024
Erscheinungsort
Hamburg
Seitenangabe
13 S.
Schriftenreihe
GIGA Focus Lateinamerika, 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57671/gfla-24022
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet
Lizenz
Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Keine Bearbeitung 3.0