The War in Sudan: How Weapons and Networks Shattered a Power Struggle

Abstract

Ten months into the war in Sudan, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo dramatically overturned the battle against Abdelfattah Al-Burhan and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Their capture of Sudan's breadbasket in December 2023 is the culmination of new regional networks, changing weapons, and tactical sabotage - and it does not bode well for Sudan's future. In Khartoum's urban battlefield, the SAF and RSF cannot concentrate their forces against the other, resulting in a stalemate. Outside Khartoum, the RSF chipped away at the SAF's infrastructure and cut off its supply chains through sieges. The RSF have also dragged the fight closer to its networks outside Sudan, shortening their own supply routes. The RSF's old and new equipment made them more adept at rural and desert warfare. Sudan is surrounded by major arms-trafficking hubs, which the RSF uses to reinforce its supply lines against the SAF. Fuel, ammunition, weapons, and other cargo are smuggled through Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, and via the Red Sea. Weapons also arrive from Uganda and South Sudan. The United Arab Emirates and the Wagner Group cooperate closely to supply the war through these countries. The SAF and RSF may not be able to terminate the violence anymore because command structures within and between troops have eroded. The SAF's losses provoke defections from its ranks. Factions that joined the war in Darfur and in Kordofan can supersede Al-Burhan's and Dagalo's authority on a municipal level and use the war for their group-specific goals.