Russia's Grain Exports and Supply Risks during Russia's War in Ukraine

Abstract

Despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s grain exports have increased. However, the risks determining Russia's actual wheat export supply in the short term have risen substantially. Thus, Russia's wheat exports might be lower than expected temporarily, driving up world market prices in that period and negatively affecting global food security. Political risks emanate from Russia's system of permanent wheat export restrictions, the country's unofficial minimum wheat export price, and increased governmental control of the grain export sector. Grain trade infrastructure in the Black Sea is exposed to military risks, which might lead to temporary disruptions of exports. Increased ruble exchange-rate volatility adds further risk to Russia's grain export supply. Countries that are heavily dependent on grain imports from Russia need to take measures to strengthen their grain-trade resilience in order to increase their food security.