The "New Turkey" Might Have Come to An End: Here's Why

Abstract

Combining formal democracy, neoliberal capitalism, and conservative Islam, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) transformed state-society relations in Turkey dramatically after its first electoral victory in 2002. Yet the elections to be held on 14 May 2023 might mark the end of an era defined as the "New Turkey" by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself. There are three key catalysts here. Until recently, AKP pursued an economic growth model that brought together a ruling bloc consisting of various social forces and state actors. Simultaneously, it reproduced mass consent leading to consecutive electoral victories. Yet, the current economic crisis makes the maintenance of the incumbent party's electoral support extremely difficult. On 6 February, southern Turkey was struck by the deadliest earthquakes in the country's history. The government's highly politicised yet wholly inadequate management of the crisis exacerbated the earthquakes' adverse effects, harming Erdoğan's image and posing another challenge for the ruling coalition in the upcoming elections. Despite Erdoğan's frequent attempts to sow discord among his critics, the opposition seems to have learnt its lesson from past mistakes, uniting behind the main oppositional candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who will significantly challenge the ruling coalition. The response of European politicians to Turkey's increasing authoritarianism in the recent past has not gone beyond expressing "deep concerns," focusing on short-term interests such as the containment of refugee flows and pursuing a transactional relationship with the incumbent president. The upcoming elections are a watershed moment for Turkey's threatened democratic institutions. European governments need to reconsider their approach, since a rules-based mode of engagement would benefit both the European Union and Turkish society in the long run.