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Ten Things to Watch in Africa in 2023
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Afrika-Studien
Abstract Russia's war against Ukraine has accelerated international competition for influence in Africa. Structural weaknesses and post-pandemic instabilities continue to threaten achievements in the fields of democratic governance, peace and security, as well as development. We present a select list and ana... view more
Russia's war against Ukraine has accelerated international competition for influence in Africa. Structural weaknesses and post-pandemic instabilities continue to threaten achievements in the fields of democratic governance, peace and security, as well as development. We present a select list and analysis of "ten things to watch" in Africa in 2023.
Politics: Democratic quality will depend on the nature of polls, as the electoral calendar is heavily packed. Important general elections that could trigger social unrest are scheduled in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe.
Peace and security: Against the backdrop of continued structural-conflict risks, Jihadism and related ethno-regional tensions pose a major security challenge that may spill over to neighbouring states, especially from the Sahel to West African coastal countries. The recent ceasefire in Ethiopia's Tigray Region could be a first positive step towards peace.
International arena: Amid Russia's war against Ukraine, many African governments were reluctant to join the international coalition condemning the Putin regime. Continued Western pressure on African countries to isolate Russia fosters African agency. At the same time, we expect to see an intensifying "new scramble for Africa" that includes both China and Middle Eastern countries.
Socio-economic development: African countries will slowly rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic's socio-economic effects, but high poverty, inequality, and government debt hamper economic growth. Progress on joint efforts to counter the climate crisis remains slow.
Western support for African countries in their struggle for democracy, peace and security, as well as development requires a "new start" that focuses on prevention rather than ad hoc responses to current crises. The European Union and United States should avoid lapsing into Cold War habits of only assisting African governments if they "break away" from Russia. Germany needs to formulate a sound Africa policy that balances values and national interests with realistic assessments of the policy's potential in light of bigger players like China.... view less
Keywords
Africa South of the Sahara; politics; political development; domestic policy; political situation; democracy; domestic security; international relations; international conflict; socioeconomic development; economic development (on national level); election; voting; Congo, Republic of the; Nigeria; Zimbabwe; Central African Republic; Ivory Coast; Ghana; Guinea; Benin; Guinea-Bissau; Togo; Islam; ethnic conflict; Sahel Region; West Africa; Ethiopia; war; Russia; Ukraine; China; Middle East; Germany; political interest; epidemic; poverty; social inequality; economic growth; climate change; pop culture; soccer; sports; Morocco; music; competition
Classification
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Wahlbeobachtung; Innenpolitischer Konflikt; Politischer Islam; Tigray; Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg; Wirtschaftliche Interessen; Afrikapolitik; Pandemie; COVID-19; Ehrung; Auszeichnung; Grammy Award
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
City
Hamburg
Page/Pages
11 p.
Series
GIGA Focus Afrika, 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57671/gfaf-23012
ISSN
1862-3603
Status
Published Version; reviewed