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Do job vacancies variations anticipate employment variations by sector? Some preliminary evidence from Italy
[journal article]
Abstract Government policy has placed increasing emphasis on the need for robust labour market projections. The job vacancy rate is a key indicator of the state of the economy underpinning most monetary policy decisions. However, its variation over time is rarely studied in relation to employment variations,... view more
Government policy has placed increasing emphasis on the need for robust labour market projections. The job vacancy rate is a key indicator of the state of the economy underpinning most monetary policy decisions. However, its variation over time is rarely studied in relation to employment variations, especially at the sectoral level. The present paper assesses whether changes in the number of vacancies from quarter to quarter are a leading anticipator of employment variation in certain economic sectors over the previous decade in Italy, using multivariate time-series tools (the vector autoregressive and error correction models) with Eurostat data. As robustness checks for integration order and cointegration, we compare traditional critical values with those provided by response surface models. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has evaluated this relationship using Italian data over the last decade. The results demonstrate that percentage changes in numbers employed (occupied persons) react to percentage changes in vacancies (one-quarter lagged), but not vice versa, indicating that variations of vacancies are weakly exogenous. The fastest short-term adjustment from disequilibrium is seen in the construction industry, whereas the manufacturing and the information and communication technology sectors demonstrate the strongest long-run relationships among variations. This suggests that the matching rates - the likelihood that a vacancy is filled - are higher for these than for other sectors, as a result of developments in recruitment technology for professional figures of such industries.... view less
Keywords
Italy; job offer; employment; job demand; labor market; economic sector; job vacancy
Classification
Labor Market Research
Free Keywords
EU-LFS 2011-2018; cointegration; job vacancy rate; long-run equilibrium
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Page/Pages
p. 71-93
Journal
LABOUR, 36 (2022) 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12213
ISSN
1121-7081
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed