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@article{ Witte2022, title = {Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs}, author = {Witte, Erich H. and Stanciu, Adrian and Zenker, Frank}, journal = {Frontiers in Psychology}, volume = {13}, year = {2022}, issn = {1664-1078}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261}, urn = {https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-83597-9}, abstract = {The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use computer simulations to estimate the necessary sample size for a given observed effect. As our main example, we apply this measure to recent meta-analytical research on precognition. Results suggest that the evidential basis is too weak for a predicted precognition effect of d = 0.20 to be considered empirically adequate. As additional examples, we apply this measure to object-level experimental data from dissonance theory and a recent crowdsourcing hypothesis test, as well as to meta-analytical data on the correlation of personality traits and life outcomes.Die Autor*innen schlagen ein simples Ähnlichkeitsmaß vor, beschreiben seine Anwendung in verschiedenen Forschungsdesigns und verwenden Computersimulationen, um die erforderliche Stichprobengröße für einen bestimmten beobachteten Effekt zu schätzen.}, }