Managing the Status Quo: Continuity and Change in the United States' Taiwan Policy

Abstract

President Donald Trump's departure from the White House was greeted with some concern in Taiwan. Having welcomed his confrontational stance towards China, many Taiwanese were concerned that US-Taiwan relations would worsen under President Joe Biden. The first 10 months in office, however, have seen the new administration repeatedly signal the US's continuing support while committing to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. As part of Trump's confrontational China policy, US-Taiwan relations saw a substantial upgrade under his leadership, both symbolically as well as in terms of concrete policies. This led many in Taiwan to view Trump as a true supporter. In contrast, Biden was initially perceived as being "soft on China." Once in office, however, the Biden administration has continued to show its self-declared "rock solid" support for Taiwan. Alongside symbolic gestures, this includes increased non-official relations and military cooperation, as well as measures to internationalise the "Taiwan question." In response, public opinion in Taiwan has considerably warmed towards Biden over the first 10 months of his presidency. At the same time, Chinese president Xi Jinping has intensified calls for Taiwan's unification with the mainland while the People's Liberation Army has ramped up military operations. This has further amplified Taiwanese rejection of Xi's goal of "peaceful unification" under Beijing's rule. As an element of the US's geostrategic rivalry with China, Taiwan will continue to play an important role in Biden's foreign policy. Because the participating actors' diametrically opposed interests are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, the Taiwan question will have to be managed carefully. The threat of violent clashes is real. Consequently, a balanced US and European policy should aim at maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, clearly signalling opposition to attempts at isolating Taiwan while also upholding the "One-China" policy.