Elections in Ecuador: An Emerging Alternative beyond the Left-Right Antagonism

Abstract

On 11 April 2021 Ecuador's presidential run-off election will take place between leftist candidate Andrés Arauz from the UNES coalition and right-wing conservative Guillermo Lasso from the PSC-CREO alliance. Though this appears to be a conventional left-right battle, the successful first-round performance of Yaku Pérez from Pachakutik and Xavier Hervas from the ID surprised many observers. Ecuador's run-off represents the choice between two opposing models of development. Arauz seeks to advance ex-president Rafael Correa's anti-neoliberal "Citizen Revolution," while Lasso promotes the old neoliberal agenda. Both contenders are betting on revenues from extractivism to fund their development plans. In the first round, Arauz and Lasso avoided taking firm stances on issues related to the environment, gender, and sexual minorities. For the run-off, they have both "greened" their agendas and spun their positions as "women- and LGBT-friendly," recognizing the success of alternative third forces led by Pachakutik and the Izquierda Democrática (ID). Despite a left majority in the legislature, creating a unified leftist front is wishful thinking. The differences between Unión por la Esperanza (UNES) and Pachakutik are irreconcilable: the former seems incapable of turning away from its founding figure, Correa, and the indigenous movement continues to be internally fragmented. As both run-off candidates combined received only a little over half of the first-round vote, endorsements are currently a crucial battleground for the finalists. Pachakutik and the ID have announced they will support neither Arauz nor Lasso. The political tradition in Ecuador indicates that votes are not easily transferred, due to voters' weak identification with programmatic militancy and ideology. Whoever wins the presidential run-off will have to deal with an urgent and profound socio-economic crisis reinforced by the COVID-19 pandemic.