Ten Things to Watch in Africa in 2021

Abstract

Fears that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to massive deaths in sub-Saharan Africa have not materialised. However, the region will not be spared from its effects in 2021 regardless. Many challenges unrelated to the pandemic persist and are likely to be aggravated by the coronavirus outbreak, putting at risk previous progress made. We present a selective list and analysis of "ten things to watch" in Africa in 2021. Fighting the Pandemic: As the world watches the race over vaccines and the start of mass vaccination, it remains doubtful that vaccinations will be available on the African continent anytime soon. Rising infection rates give reason to worry, and 2021 has already seen new lockdown measures that again hit the already poor and vulnerable. Conflicts: Jihadism will fuel further conflict while additional conflict potentials in Central Africa and elsewhere need to be watched closely too, especially in Ethiopia given it is on the verge of civil war and state disintegration. Politics: COVID-19-related restrictions may increase authoritarian tendencies. In several countries - including Ethiopia, The Gambia, Uganda, and Zambia - crucial elections will be held in 2021 that pose the risk of further democratic backsliding. Africa's giant Nigeria may see a continuation of the EndSARS protests. Development: The current crisis entails important risks for Africa's economic outlook, including the delay of regional integration, increasing government debt, and the drying-up of foreign investment flows. Poverty will remain on the rise, while the food crisis is likely to be exacerbated. Regarding the pandemic, it will be key that Africa gets its share of vaccines. European Union-Africa relations deserve a reset at the upcoming Africa-EU summit that is likely to be mainly concerned with the economic fallout of the pandemic. After Donald Trump’s demise, it remains to be seen whether the new United States Africa policy will overcome “Africa apathy” or will instead turn the continent into a battleground in the expanding rivalry with China.