dc.contributor.author | Sohlberg, Jacob | de |
dc.contributor.author | Branham, J. Alexander | de |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-06T12:56:41Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-01-06T12:56:41Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | de |
dc.identifier.issn | 2296-4754 | de |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/71117 | |
dc.description.abstract | Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong
on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections
may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of
voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the
three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling
errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the
previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with
larger polling errors. | de |
dc.language | en | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Politikwissenschaft | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Political science | en |
dc.subject.ddc | Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Social sciences, sociology, anthropology | en |
dc.subject.other | electoral change; polling context; turnout; vote buying; voting behaviour | de |
dc.title | Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy | de |
dc.description.review | begutachtet (peer reviewed) | de |
dc.description.review | peer reviewed | en |
dc.source.journal | Survey Methods: Insights from the Field | |
dc.publisher.country | DEU | |
dc.subject.classoz | politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture | en |
dc.subject.classoz | Erhebungstechniken und Analysetechniken der Sozialwissenschaften | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlbeteiligung | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | voter turnout | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlverhalten | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | voting behavior | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wechselwähler | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | en: floating voter oder swing voter? | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Prognose | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | prognosis | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlforschung | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | election research | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | internationaler Vergleich | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | international comparison | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Wahlergebnis | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | election result | en |
dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Namensnennung 4.0 | de |
dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Attribution 4.0 | en |
internal.status | noch nicht fertig erschlossen | de |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10038845 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10061173 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10072162 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036432 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10054727 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10047775 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10061867 | |
dc.type.stock | article | de |
dc.type.document | Zeitschriftenartikel | de |
dc.type.document | journal article | en |
dc.source.pageinfo | 1-17 | de |
internal.identifier.classoz | 10504 | |
internal.identifier.classoz | 10105 | |
internal.identifier.journal | 472 | |
internal.identifier.document | 32 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 320 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 300 | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.13094/SMIF-2020-00013 | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Veröffentlichungsversion | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Published Version | en |
internal.identifier.licence | 16 | |
internal.identifier.pubstatus | 1 | |
internal.identifier.review | 1 | |
internal.pdf.wellformed | true | |
internal.pdf.encrypted | false | |
ssoar.urn.registration | false | de |