Egypt after the Arab Spring: A Legacy of No Advancement

Abstract

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power after the military ousted President Morsi in July 2013 following widespread protests and strikes. With the tenth anniversary of the Arab Spring uprising approaching, it has become clear that civil-military relations, infrastructure development, and population growth remain three interrelated challenges for Egypt that have persisted throughout the last decade. The military is historically tied to politics and remains a highly popular institution in Egyptian society. Simultaneously, socio-economic grievances and its importance as an employer continue to push the military into Egypt's domestic politics. Infrastructure development is on a split course: On one hand, because of its resources and manpower, the military can invest in mega-projects in hopes of long-term economic benefits. On the other hand, urbanisation has remained stagnant due to the crackdown on booming illegal, albeit urgently needed, housing. There is acknowledgement among policymakers that population growth is stifling infrastructure and development, yet there is little incentive for change. Measures targeting women fail to gain traction because of societal pressure to bear children, and because access to education, employment, and political participation remain unsafe given rampant sexual violence in public spaces. Through supporting socio-economic advancement in Egypt, Germany and the EU can facilitate the military's withdrawal from politics over the long term. Active support for infrastructure development implemented by civilian actors will over time reduce the need for the military's economic engagement. Improving women's safety will enable their access to work and political participation, which in turn can lower birthrates more effectively than the provision of birth control alone.