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Brexit, collective uncertainty and migration decisions
[working paper]
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Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH
Abstract Brexit - the United Kingdom leaving the European Union - continues to create an unpredictable social and political landscape. Uncertainty and perceptions are influential drivers when it comes to migration decisions, and yet, the literature's inference typically relies on individual-level data. This ... view more
Brexit - the United Kingdom leaving the European Union - continues to create an unpredictable social and political landscape. Uncertainty and perceptions are influential drivers when it comes to migration decisions, and yet, the literature's inference typically relies on individual-level data. This leaves the possibility of unobserved confounding factors being simultaneously associated with uncertainty perceptions. We leverage the British referendum of 2016 to leave the European Union as a unique natural experiment to demonstrate how collective uncertainty, induced by national government policy, affects the migratory behaviour of the citizens of an entire nation. Using official bilateral migration statistics, we highlight a substantial increase in migration flows from the UK to the remaining EU/EFTA countries. Exceptional spikes in naturalisation figures further indicate that UK-immigrants already living in other EU member states are actively taking decisions to mitigate the negative impact Brexit can have on their lives and livelihoods. We analyse encompassing interview data conducted among UK-immigrants in Germany to show that uncertainty about future bilateral relations and concerns about a negative economic outlook and social consequences in the UK, have been by far the most important driver of migration and naturalisation decisions in the post-referendum period.... view less
Keywords
EU; Great Britain; migration; Briton; Federal Republic of Germany
Classification
Migration, Sociology of Migration
Free Keywords
Brexit; Migration Decisions; Migrationsentscheidungen; Risikopräferenz; Risk preferences; Subjective Beliefs; Subjektive Wahrnehmungen; Uncertainty; Unsicherheit
Document language
English
Publication Year
2020
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
26 p.
Series
Discussion Papers / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Migration und Diversität, Abteilung Migration, Integration, Transnationalisierung, SP VI 2020-102
Handle
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223206
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications