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Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus
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Corporate Editor
Forschungsinstitut der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V.
Abstract As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics - and Russia’s reactions to them - will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include ... view more
As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics - and Russia’s reactions to them - will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.... view less
Keywords
Belorussia; protest; securing of power; president; political stability; political power; authoritarianism; Russia; EU
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Free Keywords
Belarus; Lukashenko, A.
Document language
English
Publication Year
2020
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
9 p.
Series
DGAP Policy Brief, 16
ISSN
2198-5936
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0