Doomed to Instability: Israel's West Bank Annexation Plan in a Turbulent Region

Abstract

Israel's recent plan to annex parts of the West Bank threatens the stability of Jordan along with the Palestinian territories and Israel itself. To understand the repercussions of annexation, we must examine the positions of the relevant actors and their potential responses to the Israeli plan. Three constellations of actors can be singled out: de facto accepters, weak opposers, and militant revisionists. Despite the Gulf states' and Egypt's condemnation of the annexation plan, they will not take concrete measures to thwart it, due to their evolving relations with Israel and their reliance on the United States. This de facto acceptance by Egypt and the Gulf states weakens the position of the Kingdom of Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA) in advocating against the proposed plan. The prospective annexation will directly and negatively impact the Kingdom of Jordan and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. However, because of their own internal challenges, the absence of regional Arab support, and their dependence on Israel and the United States on different issues, Jordan and the PA lack the capacity to offset the Israeli plan. The Islamist militant factions in the Palestinian territories oppose the annexation plan and seem capable of turning their escalatory rhetoric against Israel into violent action. The probability of this happening might increase if the Palestinian Authority collapses in the West Bank. The annexation plan runs counter to the EU's foreign policy vis-à-vis the Israeli–Palestinian peace process. The EU should work collectively to dissuade Israel from implementing the annexation plan by applying diplomatic and, if necessary, economic pressure. Additionally, the EU should support Jordan's anti-annexation diplomatic campaign. The Palestinian Authority should receive the EU's political and financial backing as long as the PA commits to comprehensive reforms.