A Heated Debate: Climate Change and Conflict in Africa

Abstract

The worst drought in a century in Southern Africa at the end of last year slowed the iconic Victoria Falls on the Zimbabwean–Zambian border to a rill, fuelling renewed discussion about climate change. It also epitomised the potential repercussions of the phenomenon for livelihoods and security on the African continent. However, current research only sees a weak connection between climate and violent conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is the world region most affected by climate change. Parts of East Africa, the Sahel, and Southern Africa have been the most severely impacted on. Existing research largely sees climate change as a "threat multiplier," and perceives high poverty and low state capability as more influential drivers of conflict. General assessments of how climate affects conflict mask important differ­ences: In some parts of Africa, extreme weather events (such as droughts) and rising temperatures threaten the most vulnerable already - namely, those that are poor and rely on rain-fed agriculture. Pastoralist agricultural production and pronounced differences between ethnic groups are particularly dangerous risk factors. Yet uncertainty about climate's precise effects is still high. Under certain conditions, climate change can lead to increased conflict but also cooperation in affected communities across Africa. New research needs to investigate more thoroughly the mechanisms underlying how individuals and communities react to weather extremes and long-term climatic changes. It is of particular relevance to understand how increased societal cooperation as well as adequate state policies can help overcome climate change's adverse effects among those most vulnerable people. Following up on its last report from 2014, in 2022 the climate-conflict link will be re-evaluated for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. Better understanding the pathways that lead to violent conflict and focusing on the most vulnerable members of society, namely those who directly rely on rain-fed agriculture, is a necessary precondition for devising adequate policies to tame climate change's adverse effects on security. Supporting the mitigation of climate change's detrimental effects for the most vulnerable in Africa should be a key focus for European and German Africa policy.