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International schemes, Libyan realities: attempts at appeasing Khalifa Haftar risk further escalating Libya's civil war
Internationale Pläne, libysche Realitäten: die Beschwichtigung Khalifa Haftars droht den Konflikt zu verschärfen
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract Almost eight months into the offensive on Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar's “Libyan Arab Armed Forces” (LAAF), the war shows no signs of abating. Ongoing diplomatic efforts are divorced from realities on the ground. The current balance of forces rules out any possibility for a return to a political proces... view more
Almost eight months into the offensive on Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar's “Libyan Arab Armed Forces” (LAAF), the war shows no signs of abating. Ongoing diplomatic efforts are divorced from realities on the ground. The current balance of forces rules out any possibility for a return to a political process. This would require either robust international guarantees or a fragmentation of both opposing camps. As long as Haftar has the chance to advance in Tripoli, he and his foreign supporters will view negotiations as a tactic to divide his opponents and move closer to seizing power. To create the conditions for negotiations, Western states should work to weaken Haftar’s alliance - and ultimately to prepare the post-Haftar era.... view less
Keywords
Libya; civil war; conflict management; political negotiation; military intervention; Arab countries; North Africa
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Haftar, Khalifa; Militärische Operationen; Tripoli; Offensive militärische Strategie; Bemühungen um Konfliktbeilegung; Multilaterale internationale Verhandlungen; Waffenstillstand; Deutschland; Internationaler Akteur; Waffenverkäufe/Waffenlieferungen; Risiken; Konflikteskalation; Einschätzung/Abschätzung; Vereinigte Arabische Emirate; Türkei; Ägypten; Frankreich; Russische Föderation
Document language
English
Publication Year
2019
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
4 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 45/2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2019C45
ISSN
1861-1761
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications