The Lima Summit: a trial by fire for the Pacific Alliance

Abstract

On 5 and 6 July 2019, the four member states of the Pacific Alliance (PA) will meet in Lima, Peru, for the XIV Presidential Summit. With the rapidly changing both Latin American and international context, the meeting might well be the most important one since the group's creation in 2011. The convergence with the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), the accession of associate members, and enhanced cooperation with observer states are among the main topics on the agenda. The "pink tide," the name given to the coming to office of leftist presidents in several Latin American countries during the first decade of the twenty-first century, has since given way to a "blue tide" of conservative governments in the region. This might further the chances of convergence between the pro-market PA and other Latin American countries and regional organisations, above all with the members of MERCOSUR. Iván Duque assuming the presidency of Colombia in 2018 was interpreted by many as a sign of continuity in the country's economic and commercial affairs. Nevertheless, it led to the temporary suspension of Colombia's participation in the negotiations over the accession of associate members to the PA. The increasing disintegration of the Union of South American Nations led to the creation in March of this year of the Forum for the Progress and Development of South America (PROSUR), wherein the defendants of a more aggressive diplomacy approach to overthrowing Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela have gathered. In contrast to the rest of the PA members, Mexico did not join PROSUR. Some analysts fear that this could lead to additional disagreements within the PA. The successful expansion of the PA could position the organisation as one of the axes of a post–Trans-Pacific Partnership network of interregional free trade agreements (FTAs) connecting Asia-Pacific and the Americas. This would make it an attractive global partner for both Germany and the European Union, who are seeking to defend multilateralism within an international context of increasing nationalism and protectionism.