Syria: too fragile to ignore; military outomes, external influence and European options

Abstract

For the last eight years, almost all geopolitical, ideological, and sectarian conflicts of the Middle East have converged in Syria. Syria is not at peace today, but the government of Bashar al-Assad -with more than a little help from Russia and Iran- has won the war against the armed anti-regime opposition. The political opposition is largely marginalized. The Arab states are about to normalize their relations with the govern­ment in Damascus. Russia and Iran are the main external power brokers. The US mili­tary withdrawal from Syria will also reduce its political influence. The European Union and its member states will have to come up with a policy of their own to deal with the new reality in Syria. For Europe, Syria is too close -and too fragile- to ignore. (Autorenreferat)