Energy Transition in Japan: From Consensus to Controversy

Abstract

Since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, energy policy in Japan and Germany appears to have taken radically different directions. In contrast to Germany's consensus for an Energiewende ("energy transition"), Japan has renewed its political support for nuclear power. Yet, energy transitions in both countries are highly contested - with a much less predictable future than government plans would like us to believe. Japan has always connected energy self-sufficiency with national security due to its lack of natural resources and its isolated - as well as fragmented - national electricity grid. In contrast, Germany has a single grid, can trade electricity with its neighbours, and has large coal reserves. In Japan, nuclear power became a quasi "home-grown" energy source without strong opposition, while in Germany it has been increasingly contested by the "coal lobby," wind power, and the public. When the Fukushima disaster happened, both countries generated about 30 per cent of their electricity from nuclear power plants. Both countries had ambitious renewable targets already beforehand. Today, renewables account for 38 per cent of electricity production in Germany and 15.6 per cent in Japan. In both countries, the Fukushima disaster caused the collapse of the "safety myth" of nuclear power plants. In Germany, the long history of contestation over a nuclear phase-out and the broad public anti-nuclear consensus made a return to nuclear impossible. In Japan, anti-nuclear protests accelerated only after the Fukushima disaster. Thus with Prime Minister Abe's pledge to put the economy back on track, Japan is taking the political risk of reactor restarts. Energy transition is as much a reality in Japan as it is in Germany. Renewable energies have been evolving even more rapidly in Japan than in Germany in recent years, a trend further fuelled by current dynamics in the energy sector. Old regimes of energy policies are obsolete, and it is time to replace outdated analytical models with more dynamic ones to interpret national energy transitions and to pave the way for informed policymaking.