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Salmon migration and fertility in East Germany - an analysis of birth dynamics around German reunification

"Salmon migration" und Fertilität in Ostdeutschland - eine Analyse des Geburtenverhaltens nach der Wiedervereinigung
[journal article]

Kreyenfeld, Michaela
Vatterrott, Anja

Abstract

This paper uses rich administrative data from the Deutsche Rentenversicherung (German Pension Fund) to describe changes in the timing and the spacing of births that occurred in the period following German reunification. We examine differences in the birth dynamics of East Germans, West Germans, and ... view more

This paper uses rich administrative data from the Deutsche Rentenversicherung (German Pension Fund) to describe changes in the timing and the spacing of births that occurred in the period following German reunification. We examine differences in the birth dynamics of East Germans, West Germans, and women who migrated between the two parts of Germany in these years. As the pension registers provide monthly records on whether a person is living in East or West Germany, they also allow us to examine the role of regional mobility in birth behaviour. In particular, we test the "salmon hypothesis", which suggests that migrants are likely to postpone having a child until after or around the time they return to their region of origin. Our investigation shows that a large fraction of the cohorts born in 1965-74 migrated to West Germany after reunification, but that around 50% of these migrants returned to East Germany before reaching age 40. The first birth risks of those who returned were elevated, which suggests that the salmon hypothesis explains the behaviour of a significant fraction of the East German population in the period following German reunification.... view less


In diesem Beitrag werden die Registerdaten der deutschen Rentenversicherung verwendet, um die Übergänge zum ersten Kind und das "Spacing" weiterer Kinder in der Zeit nach der Wiedervereinigung zu beschreiben. Wir untersuchen dabei das Geburtenverhalten von ostdeutschen und westdeutschen sowie jenen ... view more

In diesem Beitrag werden die Registerdaten der deutschen Rentenversicherung verwendet, um die Übergänge zum ersten Kind und das "Spacing" weiterer Kinder in der Zeit nach der Wiedervereinigung zu beschreiben. Wir untersuchen dabei das Geburtenverhalten von ostdeutschen und westdeutschen sowie jenen Frauen, die zwischen den beiden Landesteilen migriert sind. Da in den Rentenregistern monatsgenaue Angaben zum Wohnort enthalten sind, erlauben sie es den Zusammenhang von räumlicher Mobilität und Geburtenverhalten zu analysieren. Insbesondere untersuchen wir die "Salmon Hypothesis" (Lachshypothese), der zufolge Geburten bis zur Rückkehr der Migrantinnen in ihre Herkunftsregion aufgeschoben werden. Unsere Analysen zeigen, dass ein erheblicher Teil der ostdeutschen Frauen der Geburtsjahrgänge 1965-74 nach Westdeutschland migrierte, jedoch bis zum Alter 40 etwa 50% von ihnen nach Ostdeutschland zurückgekehrt sind. Die Erstgeburtenraten der Rückkehrerinnen sind erhöht, was darauf hinweist, dass die "Salmon Hypothesis" das Verhalten eines großen Teils der Ost-West-Migrantinnen beschreiben kann.... view less

Keywords
birth trend; fertility; demographic factors; remigration; internal migration; Federal Republic of Germany; reunification; New Federal States; social factors; east-west comparison

Classification
Population Studies, Sociology of Population

Free Keywords
ordnungsspezifisches Geburtenverhalten; Registerdaten

Document language
English

Publication Year
2018

Page/Pages
p. 247-268

Journal
Zeitschrift für Familienforschung, 30 (2018) 3

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3224/zff.v30i3.02

ISSN
1437-2940

Status
Published Version; peer reviewed

Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0


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© 2007 - 2025 Social Science Open Access Repository (SSOAR).
Based on DSpace, Copyright (c) 2002-2022, DuraSpace. All rights reserved.